New England Patriots
Justin Herbert is a dangerous passer, but the Patriots could exploit a porous Los Angeles offensive line next weekend.
The Patriots’ impressive turnaround season continued on Sunday with a 38-10 win over the Dolphins — closing out the regular-season slate with a 14-3 record and the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
Now, the real work begins for Mike Vrabel and a Patriots team looking to carry that momentum into the postseason.
The No. 2 Patriots will host a playoff game at Gillette Stadium for the first time since the 2019 season next weekend, as New England will take on the No. 7 Chargers in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs on Sunday, Jan. 11.
Kick-off from Gillette Stadium is set for 8 p.m., with Sunday’s postseason matchup to be broadcast on NBC.
Despite avoiding a first-round matchup against Josh Allen and the Bills, the 11-6 Chargers figure to be a tough out for New England as Vrabel’s club looks to punch its ticket to the AFC Divisional Round.
“We’ll get ready and get rolling and try to do what we do every week, which is prepare and try to figure out who we have available and what we feel like the keys are going to be and try to practice and be ready to go,” Vrabel said of New England’s approach entering next week. “That’s all we’ve done all year, and it’s all we’ll be able to do this week in the playoffs.”
Here are four things to know about New England’s first-round foe:
The Chargers all but ended the Jerod Mayo era last season
Next weekend will not stand as the first time that Drake Maye has faced off against Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert, and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Los Angeles twisted the knife against the Jerod Mayo-led Patriots last December, doling out arguably the worst loss of a 4-13 campaign for New England via a 40-7 blowout at Gillette Stadium on December 28, 2024.
“This is what I told the players, there’s really nothing good to take out of that game today,” Mayo — who was fired by New England just a week later — said after that drubbing at the hands of the Chargers. “Just the lack of execution. Look, that’s a good football team, and they’re a well-coached football team. We just didn’t play well enough in any phase of the game.”
It was an ugly game all around for a seemingly rudderless Patriots team in that last meeting against Los Angeles.
New England’s defense allowed seven-straight scores at one point, with rookie wideout Ladd McConkey — whom the Patriots passed on in the 2024 NFL Draft before taking one-and-done receiver Ja’Lynn Polk — adding insult to injury with eight catches for 94 yards and two scores.
Maye — then viewed as a raw rookie instead of a premier MVP candidate — closed out that game 12-for-22 for 117 yards, a touchdown, and a fumble on a botched pitch off an attempted reverse to DeMario Douglas. The first-year QB also had to briefly leave the game to be evaluated for a head injury.
What a difference a season can make for Maye and the Patriots, who will look to exact some revenge against the Chargers with much more at stake next week.
“It’s a new team, it’s a new year,” Christian Gonzalez said postgame when asked to compare this Patriots team to the one that was defeated by the Chargers last December. “I mean, we can’t really look back at that game. It’s new year, it’s the playoffs. Just come in here and get ready and watch the film and see what they like to do and come up with a game plan and go out there and give it everything we’ve got.”
Despite that lopsided loss last season, New England had had the better of the Chargers in the postseason over the years — holding a 3-0 record against them in the playoffs (after the AFL-NFL merger).
New England’s last playoff win over the Chargers was a 41-28 victory in the 2018 AFC Divisional Round — which stands as the last home playoff victory for the Patriots.
Justin Herbert has labored since hand surgery
If the Chargers are going to come into Foxborough and end the Patriots’ season, a lot is going to fall on Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert when it comes to extending drives and keeping the ball out of Maye’s hands.
The 27-year-old Herbert has been one of the top signal-callers in the league since making his debut in 2020, throwing for 163 touchdowns and 58 interceptions over his six seasons in the NFL.
Playing in front of a porous offensive line this season (more on that shortly), Herbert still managed to throw for 3,727 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions over 16 games.
“Obviously I love his game, love the way he throws the football, throws it at a high level,” Maye said of Herbert. “He can make plays on the move, can make plays off-platform, can launch it, and I think the way he holds himself and cares about his teammates, it’s really about the team, not about himself, I have a lot of respect for Justin and how he plays the game and he plays it at a really high level.”
New England’s defense will need to corral Herbert and prevent him from extending plays if this team wants to keep its season alive. But Herbert’s health is something to keep tabs on going into next weekend.
After undergoing surgery to repair a fracture in his left (non-throwing) hand on Dec. 2, Herbert’s play dipped. Even though he didn’t miss any games after going under the knife, he threw for just five touchdowns and three interceptions in his next four games before sitting out Los Angeles’ regular-season finale against the Broncos on Sunday.
That week off might have done Herbert some good. But a diminished Herbert would be a welcome sight for a Patriots defense that entered Week 18 in 26th place in passing defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).
In his postseason career, Herbert is 0-2 with a 52.0 completion percentage, two touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Los Angeles has a glaring flaw in the trenches
New England doesn’t exactly boast an imposing pass rush. Only six NFL teams posted fewer than the 35.0 sacks the Patriots generated in 2025.
Still, the 2025 Patriots defense doesn’t need to boast the likes of a prime Willie McGinest, Matt Judon, or Chandler Jones in order to make life miserable for this Chargers offense.
Los Angeles’ offensive line has been decimated by injuries this season, losing All-Pro left tackle Rashawn Slater during training camp to a torn patellar tendon, while Pro Bowl right tackle Joe Alt landed on season-ending injured reserve in November due to ankle surgery.
Without their two franchise tackles, Los Angeles’ offensive line has frequently taken on water this year — entering Week 18 with a league-worst pass block win rate of 54 percent, per ESPN. Their run block win rate of 69 percent also ranks 31st in the NFL, further hindering the Chargers’ ability to gain chunk yardage on the ground.
New England’s defense may not be anchored by its pass-rushers, but players like K’Lavon Chaisson, Milton Williams, and Harold Landry should be able to get their opportunities to wreak havoc against Herbert next weekend.
The Chargers have frustrated opposing QBs this season
Maye has carved up opposing defenses all season long en route to a MVP-level campaign.
But Los Angeles’ defense under one of the top defensive coordinators in the game in Jesse Minter could prove to be a thorn in the side of New England’s explosive offense.
The Chargers are at their best when they’re frustrating opposing QBs and limiting their options through the air. Entering Week 18, quarterbacks have recorded a league-worst 74.8 percent passer rating against the Chargers, and are completing just 60.79 percent of their throws against Los Angeles — the fifth-lowest mark in the league.
Beyond taking away Maye’s options, the Chargers are also adept at forcing turnovers and disrupting promising drives. Los Angeles is one of 11 teams to record at least 45.0 sacks on the season, and were one of nine teams to post at least 23 takeaways — including 19 interceptions.
Granted, a QB like Maye in the midst of one of the more efficient passing seasons in NFL history could be the game-breaking talent that could land punches against Minter’s defense.
Still, Maye must take care of the ball and make the proper reads against Los Angeles’ zone-heavy coverages if the Patriots want to play in the AFC Divisional Round.
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