Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox’ pitching corps will have their hands full with a Yankees lineup that slugged a league-leading 274 home runs this season.
For the sixth time in franchise history, the Red Sox are set to battle the Yankees in the playoffs.
Boston will battle New York at Yankee Stadium for the best-of-three Wild Card round, with Game 1 set for Tuesday night in the Bronx.
Here’s the full schedule for the series:
Game 1: Tuesday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
Game 2: Wednesday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
The Red Sox had the Yankees’ number this season, posting a 9-4 record against New York during the regular season, including a 5-2 showing at Yankee Stadium.
But, New York pushed back over the final weeks of the regular season, winning three of those final four games as part of a late-season surge that culminated in a 25-8 overall record after Aug. 8.
Can the Red Sox leave the Bronx with a series victory? Here are five keys for Boston entering their latest showdown with their long-standing rival.
Limit damage via the long ball
If the Red Sox want to keep their season alive beyond this week, they’ll need to rely on the top of a starting rotation and back end of a bullpen that has been a pillar all season long.
In a best-of-three series, plenty will be placed on the shoulders of Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello (1.44 ERA in five starts at Yankee Stadium) to keep New York’s bats at bay and give an up-and-down offense a chance to capitalize when needed.
But, even if both Crochet and Bello are sharp on the mound, the Yankees are the type of offense that only needs to cash in on a mistake or two to build themselves some breathing room.
The Yankees were an offensive juggernaut this summer (a league-best 849 runs scored), due in large part to a league-leading 274 home runs.
Aaron Judge (.331 batting average, 53 home runs, 114 RBI) is obviously the conduit for New York’s lineup, but the Yankees boast seven different players who clubbed at least 20 home runs this year — with Giancarlo Stanton also swatting 24 big flies in just 77 games.
Given how inconsistent the Red Sox’ offense has been since Roman Anthony’s injury, Boston can’t afford to get down by a few runs off of a hanging curveball or two by their starting rotation.
Crochet was prone to some of those lapses down the stretch. As strong as he was all season long, he coughed up 14 home runs over his final 11 starts (70 innings) of the season.
The margin for error in this series is very slim, and the Yankees have the personnel in place to shift the momentum of a season with one blast into the short porch in right.
Capitalize against southpaws
The Red Sox like their chances with both Crochet and Bello set to start this best-of-three series in New York.
But, the Yankees are also rolling out an impressive crop of starters, leading with Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA) and Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA).
The Red Sox might have the personnel on hand to dole out some damage against lefties, especially if Alex Cora carves out at-bats for players like Romy Gonzalez and Rob Refsnyder.
As noted by Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, the Red Sox ranked in the top-five this season in terms of batting average (.258) and OBP (.326) against lefties this season.
“We have [handled lefties] throughout the year, and we’re going to keep doing it,” Cora told Speier. “Obviously, we struggled for a little bit of it, but we put [up] good at-bats against Fried, good at-bats against Rodón throughout the season, and we expect to do the same thing.”
Fried has a 1.96 ERA in 18.1 innings against Boston this season, but Rodon has coughed up 11 runs over 15.2 innings in matchups with the Red Sox.
Refsnyder — who hit .302 with seven home runs and 25 RBI after lefties this year — should be a key cog in the lineup during this series, as will Gonzalez (.331 batting average, seven home runs, 25 RBI against southpaws).
One player worth keeping tabs on for Boston is Jarren Duran, who will be tasked with providing a spark at the top of the lineup with Anthony still recovering from an oblique injury.
But, Duran has labored against lefties this season, batting just .211 in 209 plate appearances against southpaws.
Cash in on runners in scoring position
The Red Sox don’t boast the same power that the Yankees wield in their lineup, with Boston ranking 15th in MLB with 186 home runs this year — 88 fewer than New York.
But, Boston still managed to regularly drive in runners, ranking third in the AL (and seventh overall) in runs scored with 786 this season.
Boston’s offensive output has taken a hit without Anthony setting the table at the top of the lineup.
Still, Alex Cora’s club has several avenues to turn to when it comes to generate quality scoring chances — be it on the basepaths (four plays with 20+ steals) or across a lineup that saw players like Masataka Yoshida and Ceddanne Rafaela heat up over the final week of the season.
The Red Sox have the means to put men on the basepaths and apply pressure to opposing pitchers. But actually cashing in on those prime scoring chances has been more of a hurdle.
Boston led all MLB teams this season with 1,484 at-bats with runners in scoring position.
The issue? They were a pedestrian team as far as batting average (.252) with runners in scoring position — with only 11 teams recording a lower batting average during those critical situations. Boston also ranked first with a whopping 394 strikeouts with runners in scoring position.
Even if the Red Sox don’t have the means to swat pitches into the cheap seats with the same regularity as the Yankees, they have shown that they can pile on the runs by moving the line, extending at-bats, and making opposing pitchers pay with men on base.
It’s all about capitalizing on the opportunities they routinely create.
Strike against a flawed bullpen
While the Red Sox have been routinely anchored by a stout relief corps headlined by Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock, the same can’t be said for New York.
The addition of David Bednar (2.28 ERA, 35 strikeouts in 24.2 innings) at the trade deadline was a huge lift for the Yankees. But New York still boasts the worst bullpen ERA among playoff teams at 4.37 — which ranks 23rd in baseball.
One player to watch is Yankees reliever and former stud closer Devin Williams ,who is in the midst of the worst year of his career with a 4.79 ERA across 67 appearances.
If the Red Sox can knock Fried or Rodon out of a game early — be it plating some early runs or extending their pitch count — Boston could strike against a lackluster New York bullpen.
Play clean defense
As the Red Sox saw firsthand in August when the Yankees committed three errors in a single inning, sloppy play on the field can have a team behind the eight-ball in a hurry.
The Red Sox have also been prone to some major miscues in the field, with Boston leading the majors with 116 errors on the year. Trevor Story in particular has labored as of late, committing 10 errors over his final 32 games of the regular season.
Given New York’s penchant for depositing pitches into the bleachers, the Red Sox can’t maximize the damage generated by the Yankees by extending innings and putting runners on base.
Sign up for the Today newsletter
Get everything you need to know to start your day, delivered right to your inbox every morning.
