New England Patriots
The Falcons enter Sunday’s matchup with a 3-4 record as they hope to spark a playoff run.
As the Patriots are playing their best football since the dynasty days, Sunday’s opponent will rekindle one of the top memories from New England’s dynasty run.
The Patriots host the Falcons in Week 9, which marks just their third matchup against Atlanta since the memorable Super Bowl LI comeback. Roughly nine years since that Super Bowl, both teams are almost entirely different, but the Patriots carry a pair of long winning streaks entering Sunday’s game. They’ve won five in a row with Drake Maye, and the Patriots have won seven in a row against the Falcons.
So, will this Sunday be more of the same for the Patriots, or will they be caught napping ahead of a major test against the Buccaneers next week? Here are five things to know about the Falcons.
Michael Penix hasn’t been very good in outdoor or road environments in his career.
The Falcons will have their starting quarterback back when they take on the Patriots on Sunday, but it might not provide them much of a boost over Kirk Cousins.
Penix has had a pretty rough go of it when the Falcons have had to play in an outdoor environment through the first two seasons of his career. He’s lost all three starts he’s made at outdoor stadiums, completing just 53.1 percent of his passes for 660 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions with a 65.5 passer rating.
Of course, Penix’s poor play in outdoor environments might be coincidental, considering the small sample size. But one of those losses was a 30-0 drubbing at the hands of the Panthers, who only have four takeaways in the seven other games they’ve played this season. The other losses were to the Commanders (last season) and 49ers (Week 7), with both defenses playing relatively average at the time of their respective matchups.
Penix’s road struggles haven’t been exclusive to outdoor environments, though. In his only start in an indoor stadium on the road, Penix completed 13 of 21 passes for just 135 yards and an 80.5 passer rating in a 22-6 win over the Vikings in Week 2.
Maybe Sunday will be different for Penix as he goes against a Patriots defense that ranks 19th against the pass. But Sunday’s game time temperature of 52 degrees will mark the coldest environment Penix has started in.
They might have the best running back in the NFL.
Jonathan Taylor is making a case to win MVP as he’s helped the Colts get out to a 7-1 start. Christian McCaffrey has put the 49ers’ offense on his back again this season and is slightly behind Taylor for the second-most scrimmage yards in the league this season.
But Bijan Robinson might be better than both. He leads the NFL in scrimmage yards per game this season (137.4) and is ninth in rushing yards (549). Robinson also has the longest run in the NFL this season, going for an 81-yard score against the Bills in Week 6.
For as good as Robinson is as a runner, though, he’s nearly as strong as a receiver. Robinson’s 59 receiving yards per game would be the best mark on the Patriots and ranks second among all running backs. His 12.5 yards per catch also leads all running backs and is the best mark on the Falcons as he has 33 receptions for 413 yards and two touchdowns this season.
Robinson’s dual-threat ability presents an interesting challenge for the Patriots this week. While Robinson leads the NFL in missed tackles forced (36), the Patriots have yet to allow a rusher to break the 50-yard mark in a game this season.
However, the Patriots have allowed the second-most receiving targets to running backs across the league so far this season, per Pro Football Focus. New England has also allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game (39.6) to running backs this season.
Atlanta has a few other high-end players on its offense, but questions after that.
Looking beyond Penix and Robinson, there are a couple of other strengths on the Falcons’ offense.
Left tackle Jake Matthews and right guard Chris Lindstrom are probably the Falcons’ next top players after Robinson. Matthews has allowed just two sacks this season and ranks 20th among all offensive tackles in pass-block win rate. Lindstrom hasn’t allowed a sack this season and ranks 10th among interior offensive linemen in pass-block win rate.
The rest of the Falcons’ offensive line, though, has some questions. Kaleb McGary’s injury has made right tackle a hole for Atlanta, with right tackle Elijah Wilkinson being one of PFF’s lowest-ranked offensive tackles.
In terms of who Penix is throwing the ball to, Drake London has emerged as a strong first option. He has 38 receptions for 469 yards and two touchdowns this season. But after London and Robinson, non one else on Atlanta’s roster is averaging over 50 receiving yards per game this season.
The Falcons’ defense has sneakily been one of the best in the league so far this season.
Maybe it’s because of the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones days, but the Falcons seemed to have a reputation for being an offense-first team. That isn’t the case this season.
The Falcons’ defense ranks second in yards (275.6 allowed per game) and would be in the top 10 in touchdowns allowed if you take away a pick-six Penix threw in Week 3. Advanced metrics seem to like the Falcons’ defense as well as they rank 10th in defensive DVOA.
They’re also one of the best teams in the league at defending the pass.
The backbone of the Falcons’ strong defense is their secondary. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown a league-worst 162.7 passing yards so far this season while posting an impressive 85.8 passer rating.
A.J. Terrell headlines the Falcons’ secondary. He’s been one of the league’s better cornerbacks since he was drafted in 2020, earning an All-Pro honor earlier in his career and has allowed just two touchdowns since the start of the 2024 season. Terrell doesn’t have an interception so far this year, but opposing quarterbacks only have a 64.8 passer rating when throwing in his direction.
Beyond Terrell, second-round rookie safety Xavier Watts has made some plays for the Falcons’ defense with two interceptions. The same goes for fourth-round rookie Billy Bowman Jr., who has an interception this year, but he’ll miss Sunday’s game due to a hamstring injury.
Dee Alford, meanwhile, has shown strong versatility as a boundary corner and at a nickel. He has an interception this season, while opposing quarterbacks have a poor 43.4 passer rating when targeting him.
Will those corners and safeties be too much for the Patriots’ receivers to overcome? We’ll find out on Sunday, but it might be Drake Maye’s toughest test yet this season.
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