New England Patriots
The Bills have looked better as of late, even if Josh Allen has occasionally had to mask some of their flaws.
Possibly the biggest game the Patriots have had since Tom Brady’s departure in 2020 is nearly here.
The Patriots host the Bills on Sunday in a matchup that could win them the AFC East. If New England takes down Buffalo, the Patriots will be AFC East champs for the first time in six years. But as the Patriots ride a 10-game winning streak, they go up against a 9-4 Bills team that’s looked better as of late and could delay them from giving out hats and t-shirts for another couple of weeks.
So, let’s take a closer look at the Bills and five things to know about them ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Patriots.
Josh Allen is still playing at an MVP level, or at least close to it.
If the Bills wind up getting dethroned by the Patriots in the AFC East this season, it certainly won’t be Josh Allen’s fault that Buffalo’s five-year streak of winning the division would come to an end.
Of the four quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson) who many felt were in the elite category entering the season, Allen is clearly having the best year of the group. Allen’s actually on pace to put up better numbers than he did when he won MVP a year ago, completing a career-high 70.1 percent of his passes for 3,083 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions with a 102.9 passer rating.
Allen’s been just as good as he was last year on the ground, too. He’s rushed for 487 yards on 5.6 yards per carry, while his 12 rushing touchdowns are by far the most of any quarterback and are tied for the third-most in the league.
But going back to Allen’s passing, the season he’s having is even more impressive when you consider that his leading receiver only has 585 receiving yards this season. He’s been one of the NFL’s best passers in terms of attacking the middle of the field, completing 63.3 percent of his intermediate throws (10-to-19 air yards) for 1,004 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and a 117.1 passer rating, per Pro Football Focus.
However, Allen hasn’t been as great at throwing the ball deep this year. He’s completed just 17 of his 42 passes where the ball has traveled at least yards down the field for 470 yards, four touchdowns, three interceptions, and an 84.4 passer rating.
Still, it’s pretty clear that Allen is a threat to do major damage to the Patriots on Sunday. He threw for 253 yards and rushed for 53 in the first Patriots-Bills matchup this season.
James Cook is one of the game’s top few running backs, but he’s got a notable weakness in his game.
While Allen lacks talent around him in the passing game, he at least has a strong running mate out of the backfield.
James Cook is second in rushing yards this season (1,308), while his 5.3 yards per carry is the sixth-highest among eligible rushers. He’s also added 267 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown this season, serving as an occasional checkdown option for Allen.
As Cook’s had a career year, though, he’s also among the league leaders in a stat no one wants to be tops in: fumbles. Cook has fumbled the ball six times this season, which is tied for the seventh-most in the league. But it’s the highest mark among running backs. No other running back has more than four.
Four of those fumbles have come in the last two weeks, fumbling the ball twice on the same drive against the Bengals last week. One of those fumbles was recovered by the Bengals as Cook was about to rush in for a touchdown.
The Patriots were able to keep Cook in check in the first meeting between the two teams. He rushed for 49 yards on just 3.3 yards per carry in the first matchup.
The Bills’ offensive line is one of the best in the league.
The Bills’ offensive line also makes up for their lack of strong options at wide receiver. Buffalo ranks third in both pass-block and run-block win rate, with both of its starting offensive tackles (Dion Dawkins, Spencer Brown) ranking in the top 20 at the position in pass-block win rate.
Pro Football Focus recently ranked Buffalo’s offensive line as the fifth-best unit in the league. It noted that the Bills only gave up five pressures in their win over the Bengals last week.
That isn’t great news for a Patriots defensive front that is banged up and has had some struggles lately. They haven’t logged more than two sacks in a game since Week 7, and they’re giving up 4.9 yards per carry over their last four games. In fact, the Patriots rank 31st in success rate against the run since Week 9, per ESPN’s Mina Kimes.
But Buffalo’s defensive line could allow New England’s offense to have some success on Sunday.
Luckily for the Patriots, the Bills’ defensive front isn’t much better than theirs. They rank 27th in pass-rush and 21st in run-stop win rate. The Bills have also majorly struggled getting to the quarterback in recent weeks, logging just three sacks in their last five games.
In that same five-game stretch, Buffalo’s opponents have rushed the ball for 627 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. But the Patriots weren’t able to exploit that weakness in Week 5, rushing for 71 yards for 3.2 yards per carry.
Will the Patriots be able to find more success on the ground this time around against the Bills? TreVeyon Henderson has shown some improved play with more touches.
The Bills have an emerging standout at cornerback who could miss Sunday’s game.
As Buffalo’s defensive front has struggled, it at least has a player on the backend who’s helped it in a major way lately
Cornerback Christian Benford has logged an interception in each of the Bills’ last two games, including a pick-six in last week’s win over the Bengals. He was only targeted twice and didn’t allow a reception, per PFF. He’s also allowed just 155 receiving yards and zero touchdowns when targeted in Buffalo’s last eight games, mostly covering Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins last week.
Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who was on the Bills when they drafted Benford in 2022, recalls seeing a lot of potential in the cornerback right away.
“When he was a rookie, he was a standout in camp, like from Day 1,” Diggs told reporters this week. “When it came to trying rookies, I liked to push them, to see what we’ve got. It was just something about him.
“I liked his demeanor, how he played. He wasn’t a chump. You’re not going to bully him. He was quiet, but he’s smart, and real technical with his technique. His strength was him playing what he saw. And he’s a ballplayer. He’s still a ballplayer. He wasn’t a robot.”
But the Patriots might catch a break and avoid playing Benford on Sunday. He’s questionable for Sunday’s game with a toe injury and didn’t practice on Friday.
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