New England Patriots
The Steelers’ defense hasn’t been too successful to start the year, which is a good sign for the Patriots.
Mike Tomlin is still coaching the Steelers, but when they arrive at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, they’ll have some new faces from the last time the Patriots faced them in 2023.
Aaron Rodgers is obviously the most notable new name the Steelers brought in this offseason as they continue to swap quarterbacks. But they also brought in many other standouts that Patriots fans likely recognize from over the years, including Jalen Ramsey, DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith, and Darius Slay.
So, with the Steelers still getting used to a new group of players on the roster, here are five things to know about Pittsburgh ahead of Sunday’s game.
Here’s how Aaron Rodgers has had success this season.
Aaron Rodgers carved up his former team in Week 1, throwing for 244 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-32 win over the Jets. But Week 2 was a different story, completing just 54.6 percent of his passes for 203 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions in a 31-17 loss to the Seahawks.
As Rodgers has two uneven performances to start the year, his success hasn’t come from slinging the ball downfield. His average completed air yards (3.3) is the lowest in the NFL and his average intended air yards (5.7) is the third-worst in the NFL.
Those numbers check out when you look at the stats of the Steelers’ receivers so far this year. DK Metcalf is their only wide receiver with over 100 yards through the first two games (103), while running back Jaylen Warren is their leading receiver on the young season (108). So, Robert Spillane and the rest of the Patriots’ linebacker corps might be busy on Sunday, especially if Christian Gonzalez returns to New England’s secondary.
Pittsburgh’s offensive line hasn’t been stellar to start the year.
Part of the reason why Rodgers might not be airing the ball out much might be due to his protection up front. The Steelers’ seven sacks allowed are the third most in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season, with their offensive line giving up 22 pressures.
The Steelers’ offensive line is young and has some upside, with their two starting tackles (Broderick Jones, Troy Fautanu), so the unit might be able to figure it out soon. But it’s a promising matchup for the Patriots to exploit. Even though they lead the league in sacks (nine), the Patriots have really only gotten pressure when they’ve blitzed so far this season.
Teams have had success rushing away from T.J. Watt.
Do the Patriots want to have success in the ground game again on Sunday? Well, there’s a pretty simple way for them to do that against the Steelers: don’t run the ball toward Pittsburgh’s best player.
Through the first two games of the season, teams have rushed for 204 yards on 30 carries (six yards per carry) when they ran to the opposite side of star edge rusher T.J. Watt, per ESPN. When teams have rushed in the direction of Watt, they’ve only picked up 32.5 yards on 13 carries (2.5 yards per carry).
That’s obviously a substantial difference. Watt has lined up opposite the opposing team’s right tackle for all but five snaps so far this season, meaning the Patriots should run behind rookie left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson.
Campbell and Wilson showed some progression against the Dolphins last week, allowing zero pressures between them, per Pro Football Focus. But both players graded poorly in run blocking (Campbell 50.7; Wilson 42.1).
That didn’t stop Rhamondre Stevenson from putting up 54 yards on 11 carries, though. Antonio Gibson also had a solid day with 27 yards on five carries as the Patriots wait for TreVeyon Henderson to make an impact in the rushing game.
Speaking of T.J. Watt, he hasn’t had the best start to the season.
Watt’s arguably been the best pass rusher in the NFL since the turn of the decade, but he hasn’t played like it through the first two games of the season.
Watt has yet to record a sack this season and has only logged three pressures. It’s the first time in his career that Watt has failed to get a sack in the first two games. Not only that, but he only has a seven percent pass rush win rate, down from his career average (24 percent) and still well short of league average (16 percent), according to ESPN’s Seth Walder.
Maybe Father Time is slowly catching up to Watt, who’ll turn 31 in October. But there is a chance for him to get back on track this weekend. If he’s lined up opposite Patriots right tackle Morgan Moses, he’ll be going up against one of the worst pass-blocking offensive tackles so far this season. Moses’s 75 percent pass block win rate has been the worst among all offensive tackles this season, according to Walder, and has given up six pressures so far this year.
Mike Tomlin hasn’t been good against the Patriots, but he’s been good against Mike Vrabel.
The Patriots typically had the Steelers’ number throughout the dynasty years, going 12-4 against Pittsburgh from 2000-19. But Mike Tomlin didn’t become the Steelers’ head coach until 2007, going 3-10 in his matchups against the Patriots over the years. The Steelers also haven’t won at Gillette Stadium since 2008 and have a three-game losing streak against the Patriots.
Of course, Bill Belichick was on New England’s sideline for all of Tomlin’s previous matchups against the Patriots. New Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t had that same success against Tomlin that Belichick had, losing all three of his career matchups to the Steelers coach when he was with the Titans.
All three of those Steelers-Titans matchups were one-score affairs, though. In the 2021 matchup, the Steelers scored 16 unanswered to take down the Titans, 19-13. Two years later, Will Levis threw a game-sealing interception in the final seconds as the Titans drove to the Steelers’ 19-yard line in a 20-16 loss.
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