New England Patriots
The Titans enter Sunday’s matchup with a new head coach.
When Patriots coach Mike Vrabel returns to the place where he got his first head coaching experience on Sunday, he’ll see a Titans team that isn’t anywhere near as good as the ones he coached over his six-year tenure in Tennessee.
The Patriots take on the 1-5 Titans in Week 7, and as Vrabel has gotten off to a good start with his new squad, his old squad is looking for a fresh start. The Titans fired head coach Brian Callahan on Monday in the midst of his second season with the team, logging a 4-19 record over his time in Tennessee.
Senior offensive assistant Mike McCoy was named Callahan’s replacement as the interim head coach. He’ll be tabbed with trying to turn around the last-place Titans, who’ll take on a Patriots team that’s 4-2 and unexpectedly in first place in the AFC East entering Week 7.
Let’s take a closer look at the Titans and five things to know about Tennessee ahead of Sunday’s game.
They’ve got a new head coach, and interim coaches have done well in their first game in recent years.
The dead cat bounce is real in the NFL when a team fires its coach in the middle of the season.
Teams are 17-16 in their first game with an interim head coach since 2010, according to Bet IQ. While that mark is only one game over .500, those teams were the underdog in 25 of the 33 games. Those teams are also 20-13 against the spread. Since 2020, teams in their first game with an interim coach are 10-4 against the spread.
However, interim coaches who’ve made their debut against a team with a winning record haven’t done so well. They’re 6-17 with an average of minus-7.9 since 2020, according to NFL Research.
For those curious, the Patriots are seven-point favorites for Sunday’s game. That’s actually the biggest spread they’ve had in their favor for a game since the 2022 season.
McCoy has prior head coaching experience, going 27-37 over his four-year tenure with the Chargers (2013-16). He was working on Callahan’s staff as a senior offensive assistant prior to the change, and had spent the last three seasons as the Jaguars’ quarterbacks coach.
The first overall pick hasn’t done too well this season.
Cam Ward didn’t have the hype that some other recent No. 1 overall picks have had, but he was still expected to play better than he has through the first six weeks of his NFL career.
The Titans’ rookie has completed just 55 percent of his passes for 1,101 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions. His completion percentage, passer rating (67.3), and yards per attempt (5.4) are dead last among qualified passers.
The advanced numbers are just about as bad for Ward, ranking last in metrics like adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play. He hasn’t been much of a threat in the run game, either. He’s rushed for 36 yards and four first downs so far.
Going up against a quarterback who has struggled as much as Ward should be welcomed news for the Patriots’ defense. New England has struggled to stop the pass so far, ranking 25th in passing yards allowed per game (239) and last in yards allowed per attempt (7.9). Spencer Rattler was efficient for the Saints last week against the Patriots, throwing for 226 yards on just 26 attempts.
The offense around Ward is … unspectacular.
The blame for the Titans’ offense should solely fall on Ward. They’re second-to-last in the league in total rushing (491 yards) and 26th in yards per attempt (3.9). Tony Pollard has put up decent volume numbers (362 rushing yards), but he has only one game with more than 70 rushing yards this season.
As for the wide receivers around Ward, he’ll be without his top target for Sunday’s game. Calvin Ridley is dealing with a hamstring injury, but has only caught 16 passes for 290 yards this season.
Beyond Ridley, the Titans’ wide receiver corps is mostly filled with veterans past their prime or young players who don’t have a ton of upside. Fourth-round rookie Elic Ayomanor is second on the team with receiving, logging 17 grabs for 196 yards and two touchdowns so far this year. Tyler Lockett only has eight catches so far this year.
The Titans’ offensive line is a little better than the rest of the offense, though. They actually rank 12th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate, getting good play from their guards (Peter Skoronski, Kevin Zeitler) so far this season. Still, there’s room for improvement there as they’ve allowed 13.7 pressures per game, per Pro Football Focus. For reference, the Patriots have allowed 9.8 pressures per game this season.
Their defense isn’t as bad as the offense, but it’s not good.
While the Titans might be a trainwreck on offense, their defense is a little better than that, but not by much.
The Titans are 22nd in total defense (343.3 yards allowed per game) and 26th in scoring defense (26.8 points allowed per game). They’re 25th in rushing yards allowed (802) and last in rushing touchdowns allowed (11). They’re also toward the bottom of the league in advanced metrics like DVOA, ranking 24th.
Tennessee hasn’t gotten to lit up in the passing game on defense, though. It ranks 13th in passing yards allowed so far this season (1,258) and has given up 6.9 yards per attempt in its last three games, which is the 18th-best mark in the league. But the Titans are also tied for 25th in total sacks this season, logging just nine so far.
They do have one star player on defense, though.
As everything in Tennessee has crumbled this season, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons has been able to shine. He’s recorded 4.5 sacks this season, which is tied for the most among all interior defensive linemen. He also leads defensive tackles in pressures (27) and is second in run stops (18), per Pro Football Focus.
Obviously, that isn’t an ideal matchup for the Patriots. But they’ve only allowed 24 pressures over their three-game win streak, with Drake Maye getting six times.
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