New England Patriots
The Buccaneers are led by an MVP candidate at quarterback, but their defense might give the Patriots a tougher test.
After facing some of the league’s worst teams over the last month, the New England Patriots‘ six-game winning streak will face a strong test on Sunday.
The Patriots head down to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers in Week 10. While Sunday’s game could be dubbed the “Brady Bowl,” it’s also a matchup between a pair of division leaders. The Buccaneers enter Sunday’s game with a 6-2 record, with their two losses coming to arguably the NFC’s two best teams, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions.
As Drake Maye and the Patriots look to keep their win streak going, here are five things to know about their opponent for Sunday’s game.
Baker Mayfield’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year. How’s he done it?
In the first six weeks of the season, Mayfield was seen by many as an MVP frontrunner. But after a Week 7 loss to the Lions and an underwhelming performance against the New Orleans Saints in Week 8, Mayfield’s candidacy lost some steam.
Still, Mayfield has been one of the best quarterbacks in football this year and there’s plenty of time for him to get back into the MVP race. He’s completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,919 yards, 13 touchdowns, and two interceptions this year to go with a 98.1 passer rating.
While those stats might not jump off the page, Mayfield’s had to make do with a rotating cast at wide receiver this season, thanks to injuries. He’s also been fearless on long-distance throws, completing 14 of 39 passes of 20-plus air yards for 511 yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
Mayfield’s deep ball might not be as efficient as Maye’s (71.4 completion percentage), but his eight touchdowns on deep passes lead the NFL, and his 123.7 passer rating on such throws is the sixth-best mark in the league.
Mayfield has been less spectacular on short and intermediate throws. His 87.9 passer rating on short throws ranks last among the 22 quarterbacks who’ve thrown at least 100 short passes this season, and his 74.6 passer rating on intermediate throws ranks 28th among quarterbacks who’ve played at least five games this season.
But those shorter throw stats might not matter as much if Mayfield is going to continue to push the ball downfield. He’s third in aggressive percentage (19.3) this season and has the second-longest completion this year in terms of air yards (61.1), per Next Gen Stats.
Tampa Bay might have the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Similar to Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka was considered an early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year before a quiet last few weeks. But the Buccaneers’ wide receiver is certainly still in the hunt for the award.
Egbuka has 34 receptions for 562 yards and five touchdowns this season. Before suffering a hamstring injury in the Buccaneers’ Week 6 win over the 49ers, Egbuka was tracking to have an all-time rookie season at wide receiver. He became the fourth receiver in NFL history to have 20-plus catches, 400-plus yards, and five touchdowns through the first five games of his career, while also being on pace to set the rookie record for receiving yards.
The rookie only has nine catches over the Buccaneers’ last five games, failing to reach the end zone. The bye week might have been what Egbuka needed, though, allowing him some extra time to recover from the aforementioned hamstring injury.
If Egbuka is close to 100 percent, expect Mayfield to target him deep. The duo have arguably been the best deep ball connection in the league this year, with Egbuka recording eight receptions for 291 yards and four touchdowns on deep passes this year. Those are the second-most yards and touchdowns by a receiver on such plays in 2025.
Despite those eye-catching stats, Egbuka may find it difficult to get open against a Patriots secondary that plays more man coverage than all but two of Tampa Bay’s opponents this season, per Sharp Football Analysis. Through eight games, Egbuka has only managed three receptions against man coverage, per Pro Football Focus.
The Buccaneers are dealing with some similar injuries to the Patriots.
Egbuka’s struggles against man coverage could come into play on Sunday considering the number of injuries the Buccaneers are dealing with.
Just like the Patriots, the Buccaneers will also be without their top running back, as Bucky Irving is out with foot and shoulder injuries. Rachaad White has been serviceable but unspectacular in the starting role with Irving out, rushing for 179 yards on just 3.3 yards per carry in the last four games.
At receiver, the Buccaneers will also be without Chris Godwin again due to a fibula injury. That’s on top of Mike Evans’s absence, who suffered a collarbone injury in Week 7 that’s expected to keep him out for nearly the rest of the regular season.
With Godwin and Evans out, Sterling Shephard and Tez Johnson will likely get expanded roles at receiver again. Shephard has 14 receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown over the last four games, while Johnson has 14 receptions for 205 yards and two touchdowns over that same stretch.
They have a few defensive standouts as they have one of the league’s better defenses.
Although Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense have received all the buzz this season, their defense might be the stronger unit.
While the Buccaneers aren’t in the top 10 in defensive yards or scoring, they’re seventh in defensive DVOA, seventh in defensive passing DVOA, and fifth in rush defense DVOA.
They have a few players to thank for that. Defensive tackle Vita Vea hasn’t necessarily put up tremendous numbers (18 total tackles, 2.5 sacks), but he’s such a force and consistently draws double teams. That’s allowed players like edge rusher YaYa Diaby to get free. Diaby ranks in the top 11 at his position in pass rush and run stop win rate, recording 24 tackles and four sacks this year.
On the back end, cornerback Jamel Dean is having an All-Pro-worthy season. He’s allowed just 15 receptions on 31 targets for 204 yards and zero touchdowns this season, per PFF, to go with three interceptions.
Antoine Winfield Jr. has remained one of the best safeties in the league, logging 41 total tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble. He’s had help from second-year safety Tykee Smith to help solidify the back end of the Buccaneers’ defense this year, with Smith becoming one of the best tackling safeties (66 total tackles, fourth-most at position) in the league.
The Buccaneers are coming off a bye, and it might give the Patriots an advantage.
For most coaches, coming off the bye week allows you to reset and get an early advantage on your next opponent. But, for whatever reason, Todd Bowles hasn’t gotten the same boost many other coaches have following the bye week.
Bowles is 2-5 as a head coach in his team’s games following the bye week. Last year was Bowles’s first win in a game following the bye as Buccaneers coach, crushing a listless Giants team.
In his first two years as Buccaneers coach, Bowles had a pair of pretty uninspiring losses following the bye week. They lost at home to the Lions, 20-6, following their bye week in 2023. They were upset by the Browns following their bye week in 2022, with Tom Brady losing to Jacoby Brissett.
Bowles’s other three losses coming off the bye week came when he was the head coach of the Jets, getting a win off the bye week in his first year as New York’s head coach.
For those curious, Mike Vrabel is 6-0 in games following the bye week. Advantage: Patriots.
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