What experts said of Red Sox’ move

Boston Red Sox

“I don’t know what they’re thinking exactly — but it was an interesting choice to me.”

Craig Breslow and the Red Sox’ top brass got a head start to a busy offseason on Tuesday — striking a deal with the Cardinals that landed veteran starter Sonny Gray. 

Boston dealt a pair of younger pitchers in Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke to pry Gray — a three-time All-Star — out of St. Louis, with the Cardinals also handing Boston $20 million in the deal to offset some of Gray’s reworked salary for the 2026 season.

Gray should be a useful arm in Boston’s starting rotation this summer. But is Gray a legitimate No. 2 option behind Garrett Crochet, and did the Red Sox give up too much for a 36-year-old pitcher? 

Here’s what several baseball experts are saying about Breslow’s latest move.

ESPN

Grade: B+

ESPN’s David Schoenfield noted in his grading of the Red Sox’s deal that Boston didn’t exactly plunder its own farm system in order to get a solid arm like Gray out of St. Louis.

“Fitts could be a bottom-of-the-rotation guy, and given the holes in the St. Louis rotation, is almost certain to get that opportunity,” Schoenfield wrote. “His four-seam fastball, sitting 95-96, was an effective pitch in the 10 starts he made for the Red Sox in 2025, but he hasn’t really developed a trustworthy secondary offering.

“ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel rated [Clarke] the No. 9 prospect in the Boston system in August and while there’s obvious upside if everything comes together, he’s not close to the majors and the profile screams reliever risk,” Schoenfield added. 

As for Gray, Schoenfield noted that Gray has plus stuff on the mound after leading all National League starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio — while ranking fourth in the majors among starters with a nearly 52 percent strikeout rate and holding opponents to a .135 average when getting two strikes on them.

But Schoenfeld added that Gray’s fastball was often hit hard last season — with opponents batting .370 and slugging .585 against his four-seamer. 

“Can that be fixed? With a fastball that averages 92 mph, maybe not,” Schoenfield added. “Gray did throw his three fastball variants 53% of the time, so maybe the Red Sox suggest a different pitch mix — the four-seamer, while it gives him the one pitch Gray throws up in the zone, has been hammered two years in a row now, but was still the pitch he threw most often in 2025.

“Overall, Gray plugs a big hole without the Red Sox paying out a long-term contract — and the Red Sox didn’t give up anybody who projected to be an impact player for them in 2026 (such as starters Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who debuted this past season and could be in the 2026 rotation).”

CBS

Grade: A

CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson gave Boston high marks — noting that the Red Sox managed to avoid taking on the entirety of Gray’s altered contract that will essentially pay him $41 million in 2026. 

“Here, the Red Sox not only leveraged their pitching depth to land another quality starter, they did it while creatively maintaining financial flexibility that should come in handy throughout the winter,” Anderson wrote.

“Gray, 36, might be the most underrated pitcher of his generation. Across parts of 13 seasons, he’s amassed a 117 ERA+, a 3.10 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and more than 33 Wins Above Replacement,” Anderson added. “He’s logged at least 150 innings in each of the past three seasons, and last year’s inflated ERA shouldn’t cause too much concern. If you compare his metrics on a year-to-year basis, he saw improvements in 2025 in both his average exit velocity and his walk rate (and therefore his strikeout-to-walk ratio).”

Even if Boston isn’t exactly on the hook for Gray’s entire contract, Boston is still closing in on the first threshold of the competitive balance tax after taking on over $20 million of Gray’s deal.

The Athletic

Grade: A-

Chad Jennings of The Athletic also believed that targeting Gray — even if he ends up serving as just a rental — was the right move for a Red Sox team that is looking to capitalize on this current contention window. 

“These two teams are in remarkably different places, trying to do remarkably different things,” Jennings wrote. “That’s why the deal works so well for each side. The Red Sox are ready to win, and among their most glaring short-term needs — a problem that already hurt them in the playoffs this season — was a No. 2 starter behind Garrett Crochet. 

“Gray fills that void, offering experience and strikeouts without issuing a ton of walks. He’s a rental, and not especially cheap even with the Cardinals covering roughly half of his salary, but he fits the moment, and positions the Red Sox as a team committed to winning. Unlike in the previous season, they had some young pitching depth that they could afford to trade.”

USA Today

Grade: B

USA Today’s Charles Curtis believed both the Red Sox and Cardinals benefitted from this trade, with Boston acquiring a strong arm in its rotation and St. Louis accepting an inevitable retooling by moving Gray for future assets.

“This one is fairly straightforward: Gray is aging, but he’s still a solid veteran starter who has won 27 games over the past two seasons and who can still has the potential to be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher,” Curtis wrote. “He’ll eat up some innings, too. They didn’t break the bank and got an upgrade in the rotation. Seems solid, if unspectacular. Plus, the Cardinals are paying some money for Gray, which helps!”

Ken Rosenthal

While the longtime baseball scribe didn’t hand out a grade following Tuesday’s trade, he did question whether or not the Red Sox extracted top value in this swap — especially if Gray stands as more of an upgrade over Lucas Giolito than a legitimate No. 2 option behind Crochet. 

“My expectation from the Red Sox was that they were going to go to a guy they believed would slot in with some certainty as a number two starter in a postseason series behind Garrett Crochet,” Rosenthal said on “Foul Territory. “I’m not sure Sonny Gray at 36 years old, is that anymore … I thought the Cardinals did well. 

“I’m not sure the Red Sox did well enough, but maybe they see this differently. Maybe they say, ‘You know what? ‘We’re not doing $150 million [for] Dylan Cease, or Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez or [Tatsuya] Imai. “No, let’s do one year with Sonny Gray.’ Do some other things to upgrade offensively. Maybe get another lesser starter as well. I don’t know what they’re thinking exactly — but it was an interesting choice to me, the one that they made.”

 

Conor Ryan is a staff writer covering the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox for Boston.com, a role he has held since 2023.