How Patriots’ odds to win AFC East, get No. 1 seed can improve in Week 14

New England Patriots

The Patriots control their own destiny in the AFC East race, but they might need some help to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

By Conor Roche

December 6, 2025 | 2:03 PM

2 minutes to read

The Patriots might be off this weekend, but what happens during their bye week could play a role in determining their playoff path.

At 11-2, New England sits in pole position for the AFC East title and the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Patriots are hoping to fend off the 8-4 Bills in the AFC East race, while the 10-2 Broncos are their top competitor for first place in the AFC.

So, let’s take a look at how the Patriots’ playoff picture could be impacted in Week 14 and what has to happen in order to ensure that the AFC playoffs run through Foxborough.

How Patriots’ odds to win AFC East can improve in Week 14

The Patriots already sit in a good spot to win the AFC East entering Sunday’s slate. No matter what happens in the Bills’ matchup against the Bengals on Sunday, the Patriots will clinch the AFC East for the first time in six years if they beat the Bills in Week 15.

But a Bills loss to the Bengals would essentially give Buffalo zero margin for error to steal the division. In that scenario, the Patriots would have a 96 percent chance to win the division, per The Athletic‘s Playoff Simulator. The simulator already gives the Patriots a 92 percent chance to win the division, with a Bills win on Sunday only decreasing New England’s odds to take the AFC East to 88 percent.

How Patriots’ odds to get AFC’s No. 1 seed can improve in Week 14

The Colts’ sudden two-game losing streak has essentially turned the battle for home-field advantage in the AFC into a two-team race between the Patriots and Broncos.

The simplest way for the Patriots’ odds to get the top seed in Week 14 would be for the Broncos to lose. However, the Broncos are 7.5-point favorites against the Raiders this weekend in Las Vegas. If two-win Las Vegas is somehow able to pull off the upset, New England’s chances of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC climb to 74 percent, per The Athletic‘s Playoff Simulator.

Entering Week 14, the Patriots’ odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed sit at 58 percent, according to The Athletic. So, a Broncos loss would make a difference, giving the Patriots a one-game advantage. It would also give New England the edge in the first tiebreaker as both teams enter Week 14 with the same record against AFC opponents (6-2).

If the Broncos win on Sunday, the Patriots’ chances to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC drop to 52 percent, according to The Athletic.

Looking beyond the Broncos, the Colts-Jaguars game might be of some importance for the Patriots’ chances for the No. 1 seed. Both of those teams are 8-4 as they battle for first place in the AFC South, but an Indianapolis win would slightly help New England’s odds (59 percent) to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC more than a Jacksonville win (57 percent).

The reasoning for the slight odds difference might be due to the Colts’ more difficult strength of schedule and the Jaguars-Broncos Week 16 matchup. If the Colts beat the Jaguars on Sunday, and the Jaguars defeat the Broncos in Week 16, the Patriots’ odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed improve to 73 percent, per The Athletic. That’s before taking into account the result of any other matchup.