How Patriots’ odds to win AFC East, No. 1 seed can improve in Week 16

New England Patriots

The Patriots still control their own destiny in the AFC East, but their road to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed is narrow.

By Conor Roche

December 20, 2025 | 12:32 PM

3 minutes to read

The Patriots will get a second try at securing a playoff spot in Week 16

There are a few different ways the Patriots can clinch their first playoff berth in four years this weekend. A win over the Ravens would be the easiest way to do it, but they could get into the postseason if the Colts lose to the 49ers on Monday or if the Texans lose to the Raiders on Sunday.

At 11-3, the Patriots still remain ahead of the 10-4 Bills in the AFC East even after last week’s loss. They’re also still in the hunt for the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed, but their odds to take that are much slimmer than they were at this time last week.

So, let’s take a look at how the Patriots’ odds to capture the AFC East and AFC’s No. 1 overall seed can improve in Week 16.

How Patriots’ odds to win AFC East can improve in Week 16.

The Patriots can’t clinch the AFC East on Sunday, but they can make their path to doing so a lot easier entering the final two weeks of the season.

A win over the Ravens and a Bills loss to the Browns would mean that the Patriots would only need to win just one of their final two games to win the division. They could also win the division if the Bills lose one of their final two games in this scenario. 

But, with the Bills sitting as 10.5-point favorites on the road against the Browns, that scenario seems unlikely. So, what happens if the Patriots and Bills win on Sunday? The Patriots’ odds to win the AFC East would improve from 77 percent to 81 percent, per The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator.

If the Bills win and the Patriots lose on Sunday, the Patriots’ odds to win the division drop from 77 percent to 65 percent, per The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator.

In the event that the Bills win on Sunday, there are three ways for the Patriots to win the AFC East over the final two games. The Patriots would clinch the division title if they either win out, the Bills lose out, or if they split their final two games and the Bills lose to the Dolphins in Week 18.

How Patriots’ odds to get AFC’s No. 1 seed can improve in Week 16

The Patriots’ odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed took a significant hit in Week 15 thanks to their loss to the Bills and the Broncos’ win over the Packers. Not only do the Broncos (12-2) have a better record than the Patriots, but they also hold the tiebreaker over the Patriots, too. So, a Broncos win over the Jaguars and a Patriots loss to the Ravens on Sunday would knock New England out of contention from getting the No. 1 seed. 

But if the Patriots beat the Ravens and the Jaguars take down the Broncos, New England’s odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed jump from 11 percent to 40 percent, per The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. In that scenario, the Patriots would need to win out and for the Broncos to lose one more game in order to get the AFC’s top seed. 

In the event that the Jaguars beat the Broncos and the Patriots lose to the Ravens, New England’s odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed drop from 11 percent to three percent, per The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. The Jaguars would leapfrog the Patriots in the AFC standings in that scenario. So, New England would need to win out, Denver to lose out, and Jacksonville to lose at least one game to get the No. 1 seed over the final two games of the season if that took place on Sunday.