What experts said of Red Sox deal

Boston Red Sox

“Overall, the Red Sox pick up a solid hitter while only giving up one player who was going to help in 2026.”

By Conor Ryan

December 22, 2025 | 5:56 PM

5 minutes to read

The Red Sox added an intriguing bat to their lineup on Sunday, acquiring three-time All-Star Wilson Contreras in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Boston gave up starter Hunter Dobbins and a pair of younger minor-league arms in Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita in order to acquire the 33-year-old Contreras, who is expected to add some pop to Boston’s lineup while playing sound defense at first base.

Given the Red Sox’s evident need for a plus bat — especially in the infield — Boston received some high marks this week by MLB writers when it came to grading this deal with Chaim Bloom and the Cardinals. 

Here’s what several baseball scribes said of Craig Breslow’s latest move.

ESPN

Grade: B

ESPN’s David Schoenfield gave Boston a positive grade for addressing an area of need at first base — especially at a lower cost than what it would take to sign a free agent like Pete Alonso.

While Alonso signed a five-year, $155 million contract with the Orioles earlier this month, Contreras is under contract for the next two seasons at $36.5 million — with Boston also holding a $17.5 million club option for the 2028 campaign.

“Contreras feels like a safe bet, but there are some warning signs here. He’s entering his age-34 season, in that danger zone, and he’s coming off a career-low 7.8% walk rate while also seeing his strikeout rate increase the past two seasons,” Schoenfield wrote. “But the bat speed (95th percentile) and hard-hit rate (83rd percentile) remain strong, so though he shouldn’t fall off a cliff, his best days are probably behind him.”

“Overall, the Red Sox pick up a solid hitter while only giving up one player who was going to help in 2026, and even then, Dobbins was down the depth chart in the rotation,” he added.

The Athletic

Grade: A

Chad Jennings of The Athletic handed Boston a high grade for bringing in a plus bat and solid defender in Contreras, while also giving the Cardinals an A- for recouping assets and adding more young talent to the organization ahead of an expected rebuild under Bloom’s watch.

“This is the second time the Cardinals and Red Sox have matched up this winter, and once again, it’s a deal that makes a lot of sense for each side,” Jennings wrote. “The Red Sox get the right-handed power bat they’ve wanted and needed for a while now — not one that plays second or third, but first base wasn’t exactly settled either — and the Cardinals get another young starting pitcher to throw immediately into their rotation, plus a couple of higher upside arms for down the road. 

“Contreras isn’t a 30-homer guy, but he’s had at least a 123 OPS+ each of the past four seasons, and he tends to pull the ball in the air, which could play well at Fenway Park,” Jennings added. “He also graded as a strong defender in his first full season at first base. He’s a good fit for a team that wants to improve its infield defense and leans left-handed in the lineup.”

Sports Illustrated 

Grade: B-

Even though SI’s Ryan Phillips noted that Contreras will likely replace Triston Casas as Boston’s everyday first baseman, he added that Contreras alone won’t stand as the impact bat needed to fix a Red Sox lineup that sputtered down the stretch.

“Contreras is a solid right-handed bat, but isn’t a WAR machine. In 2025, he slashed .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, and a wRC+ of 124. He posted 2.8 fWAR,” Phillips wrote. “His peak season came in 2022 with the Cubs, where he slashed .243/.349/.466 with 22 homers, 55 RBIs, and a wRC+ of 134. …  He’s coming off a biceps injury that ended his 2025 campaign and has had various injuries throughout his career that have limited the former catcher’s availability.

“In the end, he’s a good, proven right-handed bat, but Boston may have to deal with his poor defense at first base and the fact that he tends to miss a lot of games,” Phillips added. “It’s a solid pickup but far below where they aimed at first base to open the offseason.”

Phillips’ commentary on Contreras’ poor play at first base is a bit strange. 

Last year, Contreras ranked fourth among players at first base with six Outs Above Average. Alonso — viewed as a tempting free-agent add for the Red Sox at first base this winter — posted a -9 Outs Above Average in 2025.

FanSided

Grade: B

Contreras may not boast the 40-homer potential that Alonso wields. But he has clubbed 20 or more home runs in six of his nine full seasons in MLB, not counting the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. 

After Boston scored just six total runs in its three-game playoff series against the Yankees last October, FanSided’s Chris Landers believes that Contreras represents a solid upgrade for Boston at first base.

“Contreras didn’t come free, but he also didn’t cost Boston more than it could afford to lose,” Landers wrote. “He’s still a very good hitter, one who should enjoy the friendly confines of Fenway Park, and he shows little sign of slowing down entering his age-34 season. 

“There’s risk here, to be sure — he’s an aging righty first baseman, after all, and the Sox are still on the hook for $16 million a year or so in 2026 and 2027 — and more work needs to be done for this offense to be good enough to win a World Series. But Contreras helps in a way this team definitely needed, and Dobbins, while valuable, didn’t have a clear role on next year’s team.”

CBS Sports

Grade: A

CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson gave Boston a high mark for not only adding a solid hitter with impressive underlying metrics in Contreras, but also avoiding a scenario where Breslow had to part with some of the top prospects within the Red Sox’s farm system. 

“Generally, bat speed is one of the main concerns for right-handed first baseman aging into their mid-30s. That variable not only impacts their slugging capacity, but also their ability to keep their strikeout rate in check,” Anderson wrote. “While Contreras swings and misses and punches out his fair share, it should be encouraging that he improved both his in-zone and overall contact rates in 2025 — and did so with only a slight reduction in his swing rate.

“If nothing else, the Red Sox were able to net an above-average stick on a short, cheap agreement for more of their pitching surplus without touching anyone they’re likely to miss in 2026 (Payton Tolle or Connelly Early) or compromising other pursuits,” Anderson added. “This, then, seems like another fine swap both ways.”

 

Conor Ryan is a staff writer covering the Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, and Red Sox for Boston.com, a role he has held since 2023.