New England Patriots
The Patriots would need a shorthanded Chargers team to beat the Broncos on Sunday evening.
The Patriots have already clinched both a playoff berth and the AFC East entering the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season.
Still, New England has something to play for on Sunday evening against the Dolphins, as the No. 1 seed in the AFC has yet to be determined.
New England — currently holding court as the No. 2 seed in the conference — does need a lot to go its way in Week 18 in order to take that top seed.
Not only do the Patriots have to beat Miami at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, but they’re also going to need help out west, as the Chargers must beat the Broncos in Denver in order to knock the Broncos out of that No. 1 perch.
That scenario became pretty bleak on Monday evening, given the Chargers’ roster plans this weekend.
Speaking to reporters in California, Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh announced that starting quarterback Justin Herbert will not play on Sunday in Denver, with Los Angeles instead choosing to protect their star player and roll with backup Trey Lance instead.
Los Angeles enters Week 18 with far fewer stakes, especially with their shot at challenging Denver for the AFC West coming to an end last week once the Broncos outlasted the Chiefs on Christmas Day and the Chargers came up short against the Texans.
As such, the 11-5 Chargers can’t overtake or tie the 13-3 Broncos in the division, with Harbaugh and Co. opting to punt on Sunday and deciding to rest their most valuable asset against a stout Denver defense.
That’s bad news for the Patriots, as just a win outright against the Dolphins won’t be enough to leapfrog the Broncos in the standings. If both the Patriots and Broncos win on Sunday, they’ll both sit with identical 14-3 records.
However, the Broncos hold the tie-breaker over the Patriots due to Denver holding the better record against common opponents.
New England opened the season with a Week 1 loss to a cellar-dwelling Raiders team, while the Broncos beat Las Vegas twice during AFC West divisional play.
In an ironic twist of fate, that fluke season-opening defeat to a dreadful Raiders roster could stand as the key determinant in why New England won’t earn a bye in the first round of the playoffs — or hold home-field advantage all the way through the AFC Championship Game (if Denver isn’t eliminated before then).
Even if the odds don’t favor the Chargers — sans Herbert — coming through with an upset win over the Broncos, the Patriots still should have plenty of motivation on Sunday.
A win over Miami would at least cement New England as the No. 2 seed, while a loss could run the risk of the Patriots dropping to the No. 3 seed if Jacksonville wins over the Titans on Sunday afternoon.
Get the latest Boston sports news
Receive updates on your favorite Boston teams, straight from our newsroom to your inbox.
