New England Patriots
If the Patriots wind up playing in the Wild Card Round, there are three teams they could possibly face.
We know that the Patriots are going back to the postseason, but we don’t know much about their path beyond that.
The 13-3 Patriots have secured the AFC East title and hold the AFC’s No. 2 seed entering their Week 18 matchup against the Dolphins. However, the Patriots can still end up with the AFC’s No. 1 seed, which would give them a first-round bye and home-field advantage until the Super Bowl.
What we do know, though, is that there are only three teams the Patriots could possibly face if they wind up playing in the Wild Card Round. So, let’s take a closer look at the Patriots’ seeding scenarios entering Week 18, and how they might stack up against their potential opening round opponents.
Patriots’ seeding scenarios
How Patriots could get No. 1 seed: There are a couple of different ways in which the Patriots can get the No. 1 seed. The simplest is for them to win and for the Broncos to lose to the Chargers. They can also get the No. 1 seed if they win and the Broncos tie, or if the Patriots tie and the Broncos lose.
How Patriots could get No. 2 seed: The Patriots would secure at least the No. 2 seed with a victory or a tie on Sunday. If the Broncos beat the Chargers, they’ll be locked into the No. 2 spot. The Patriots would also get the No. 2 seed if they lose and the Jaguars lose or tie against the Titans.
How Patriots could get No. 3 seed: The Patriots can only drop in the AFC standings if they lose and the Jaguars win on Sunday.
Examining Patriots’ potential opening round opponents.
If the Patriots wind up missing out on getting the No. 1 seed, there are three teams they could possibly face in the opening round: the Bills, Chargers, and Texans. Here’s a bit more on how the Patriots stack up against each of those teams.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are the only one of these three teams that the Patriots faced this season. Of course, they split the season series, with the Patriots winning by three at Orchard Park in October before the Bills came back from a 21-0 deficit to win the game at Foxborough in December.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen might be the best player in the AFC playoff bracket, even if he’s dealing with a foot injury that’s clearly impacted his play over the last couple of weeks. He hasn’t been amazing against the Patriots this year, but he definitely hasn’t been bad. He threw for 253 yards and rushed for 53 yards in the first game against the first Patriots, throwing a costly interception in the second half of that game. His yardage wasn’t great in the second meeting (193 passing yards, 48 rushing yards). However, Allen threw three touchdowns in that game and appeared to be in full command in the second half.
Beyond Allen, running back James Cook would probably be the Patriots’ biggest worry if they take on the Bills in the postseason. Cook gashed the Patriots’ defense in Week 15, rushing for 107 yards on 4.9 yards per carry and two touchdowns in that game. But New England was without standout defensive tackle Milton Williams and leading tackler Robert Spillane in that game. When the Patriots had the two players available in the Week 5 matchup, Cook rushed for just 49 yards on 3.3 yards per carry.
Flipping it around, we saw how well the Patriots could run against the Bills’ defense in Week 15. That might not be an anomaly, either. Buffalo’s 29th in rush defense and has allowed the second-most yards per carry (5.3) this season. So, maybe TreVeyon Henderson can have another big day against the Bills if the Patriots meet up with them in the postseason after going for 148 yards in the Week 15 loss.
Drake Maye didn’t throw a touchdown pass in either game against the Bills this season, but he appeared to be in command for a good portion of both games. He threw for 273 yards in the Week 5 win, leading the Patriots to a game-winning drive in the final minutes. He had a couple of rushing touchdowns in the second matchup. However, he only had 155 passing yards as he completed just 5 of 12 passes for 47 yards in the second half of that game.
Considering that both games were decided by four points or fewer, a potential rubber match between the Patriots and Bills might truly be a toss-up.
How Patriots would face Bills in opening round:
- Patriots win, Broncos win, and Bills lose in Week 18 OR
- Patriots lose, Broncos win, Bills win, Jaguars win, and Texans win
Los Angeles Chargers
The last time the Patriots faced the Chargers, Los Angeles essentially put the Jerod Mayo era in New England to bed. The Chargers dominated the Patriots, 40-7, in the penultimate game of New England’s 2024 season. Maye threw for just 117 yards in that game, although he briefly departed to get checked for a concussion.
A year later, and things are much different in New England. Things are also different with the Chargers, but they’re mostly health-related. The Chargers are without their starting offensive tackles, with Rashawn Slater suffering a season-ending injury in training camp, while Joe Alt went down for the year in November.
That’s caused the Chargers’ offensive line to take a major step back in 2025. Pro Football Focus has Los Angeles’ offensive line as the second-worst offensive line unit in the NFL entering Week 18.
Going up against a battered Chargers’ offensive line would be one of the more favorable matchups for the Patriots’ defense. New England’s front seven hasn’t been tremendous this year, to say the least. It’s tied for 23rd in sacks this year and has allowed its opponent’s starting running back to go for at least 100 rushing yards in each of the last three games.
Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is also banged up. He recently underwent surgery to fix a fracture in his non-throwing hand. While Herbert hasn’t missed playing time due to the injury, he’s had a lot of extra protection on his left arm in recent weeks.
Herbert has had a pretty good season, throwing for 3,727 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. But he’s had some struggles in recent weeks, throwing for 885 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions in the four games since he underwent surgery. So, a matchup against a hampered Herbert wouldn’t be bad for a Patriots defense that ranks 26th in passing defensive DVOA.
As for the Chargers’ defense, they could present some problems for Maye and the Patriots’ passing attack. They’re sixth in passing defense and passing defense DVOA. They’re also tied for 10th in sacks, while opposing quarterbacks have logged a league-worst 74.8 passer rating.
How Patriots would face Chargers in opening round:
- Patriots win, Bills win, and Chargers lose OR
- Patriots lose, Jaguars win, Bills lose, Chargers win, and Texans lose
Houston Texans
The Texans might have the singular best unit of any team in the AFC side of the playoff bracket.
Houston’s defense ranks among the best in the league in several metrics. It ranks first in total and scoring defense. It’s fourth in the league in passing yards and rushing yards allowed. It’s second in defensive DVOA, ranking first in passing defense DVOA. It’s fifth in sacks and fourth in takeaways, while ranking second in opponents’ passer rating.
So yeah, that would be a potentially daunting matchup for Maye with an offensive line and skill position group that isn’t spectacular. But Maye did show some bright spots against this Texans defense when he made his first career NFL start against them last season, throwing for 243 yards and three touchdowns. But he also had three turnovers.
Even with Maye playing at a high level this season, the Texans’ defense has proven that they can slow down the best of the best. Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert all failed to put up 20 points against this Texans defense in 2025.
But there’s a reason why the Texans are unlikely to win their division. Their offensive production hasn’t come anywhere close to matching their defensive production. The Texans rank 20th in total offense, 16th in scoring offense, and 21st in offensive DVOA.
A big reason for the Texans’ lack of high-end offensive production is their offensive line. They rank 30th in pass block win rate (55.4 percent) and 32nd in run block win rate (68.3 percent), while PFF ranks the Texans’ offensive line as the 10th-worst in the league.
Just like with the Chargers, a matchup against the Texans could allow the Patriots’ underwhelming front-seven to have a decent performance in the postseason. Houston’s run game has also suffered as a result of the poor offensive line play, 24th in rushing yards and 28th in yards per attempt.
Any key to beating the Texans might be to limit the number of explosive plays they can create. They’ll likely have the worst play success rate (40.7 percent) among all teams in the postseason, but the Patriots rank 19th in defensive play success rate (44.4 percent).
The Texans showed last week against the Chargers that they only need a couple of explosive plays in order to win, getting two long touchdown passes early on. Nico Collins has been one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year (sixth in receiving yards), so Houston certainly has potential to pop. However, C.J. Stroud hasn’t been tremendous at throwing the ball down the field. His passer rating on deep and intermediate passes ranks 20th or worse.
How Patriots would face Texans in opening round:
- Patriots lose, Texans lose, Bills lose, Chargers lose, Jaguars win
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