New England Patriots
The Patriots control their own destiny in the AFC East, but will need some help to get the No. 1 seed.
The Patriots learned last week that they’ll be going back to the postseason for the first time in four years, with their victory over the Ravens officially securing them a playoff spot. But New England wants more than just a postseason berth.
“We’re going to try to win the division,” Vrabel told reporters following the win over the Ravens. “We’re going to focus on that. Just take it one day at a time, or whatever happens.”
Well, the Patritos have a chance to win the division in Week 17 after failing to take advantage of that opportunity in Week 15, when they lost to the Bills. At 12-3, the Patriots are also still in the mix to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed. However, they don’t control their own destiny there.
As we reach the penultimate week of the regular season, let’s take a closer look at the Patriots’ clinching scenarios for Week 17 and how their odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed can improve.
How the Patriots can clinch the AFC East or see their odds to win the division improve in Week 17.
The easiest way for the Patriots to win the AFC East on Sunday is pretty simple: beat the Jets and hope the Bills lose or tie against the Eagles. However, the Patriots could also win the division if they tie against the Jets and the Bills lose on Sunday.
A win over the three-win Jets would put the Patriots in a pretty good spot to win the division entering the final week of the regular season. If they were to beat the Jets on Sunday, the Patriots would only need a Week 18 win over the Dolphins to secure a division title. The Patriots’ odds to win the division would also improve from 83 to 85 percent if they and the Bills win on Sunday, per The Athletic’s Playoff Predictor.
In the event the Patriots lose and the Bills win, though, they would lose control of their own destiny in the AFC East for the first time since October. The Bills would only need a win over the Jets in Week 18 in order to clinch the division in that scenario as Buffalo holds the conference record tiebreaker. The Patriots’ odds to win the division would drop to 10 percent in that scenario, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Predictor.
If the Patriots and Bills both lose on Sunday, New England would still control its own destiny to win the division entering Week 18. Its odds to win the division would actually climb to 86 percent in that scenario, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Predictor.
How Patriots’ odds to get AFC’s No. 1 seed can improve in Week 17.
The Broncos’ victory over the Chiefs on Thursday night ensured that the Patriots would be looking up at Denver in the AFC standings entering Week 18. The Broncos hold the common opponents tiebreaker over the Patriots, meaning Denver would get the No. 1 seed even if New England also improves to 13-3 this weekend.
If the Patriots were to win on Sunday, they would need to win in Week 18 and for the Broncos to lose to the Chargers next weekend in order to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Patriots are eliminated from No. 1 seed contention with a loss to the Jets on Sunday.
In the scenario that the Patriots win on Sunday, their odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed would jump from 30 percent to 37 percent, according to The Athletic‘s Playoff Predictor.
There is another result in Week 17 that could help the Patriots get the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. If the Chargers beat the Texans on Sunday, Los Angeles would enter that battle with Denver in Week 18 with the chance of winning the division and getting the AFC’s No. 1 seed. In the event the Chargers lose, they would only be playing for seeding purposes in Week 18 and could value rest ahead of the opening round of the playoffs.
New England still controls its own destiny to get the AFC’s top seed over Los Angeles, so rooting for the Chargers this weekend should be OK for Patriots fans.
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