How Patriots’ divisional and AFC’s top seed odds can be impacted in Week 15

New England Patriots

The Patriots can clinch the division with a win on Sunday.

By Conor Roche

December 13, 2025 | 3:02 PM

3 minutes to read

The Patriots can clinch a playoff spot for the first time in four years on Sunday. They can also clinch a division title for the first time in six seasons when they take on the Bills.

New England would secure a playoff spot and win the AFC East if it simply beats Buffalo in Week 15, giving it a home playoff game for the first time since 2019. But a loss could prevent the Patriots from handing out hats and t-shirts for a division title for at least another two weeks and place some pressure on them in their final three games of the season.

At 11-2, the Patriots are also battling for the AFC’s No. 1 seed as they’re currently looking up at the Broncos for the conference’s top spot.

So, let’s take a look at how the Patriots’ odds to win the AFC East and get the AFC’s No. 1 seed can be impacted in Week 15.

How Sunday’s game can impact Patriots’ AFC East odds

We already know that the Patriots can win the AFC East if they beat the Bills on Sunday. But what if they lose?

Well, in that scenario, the Patriots’ odds to win the division would drop from 89 percent to 76 percent, per The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator. So, not too much of a drop off.

However, the Patriots’ margin for error would slip in that scenario. New England currently holds the tiebreak over Buffalo thanks to its 3-0 division record over Buffalo’s 2-2 mark against division opponents. But if the Bills win out and the Patriots lose either of their final two games (at Jets, vs. Dolphins), Buffalo would get the division thanks to its strength of victory. 

So, Sunday’s game isn’t necessarily an AFC East Championship Game. But it could put a lot of pressure on the Patriots down the stretch if they lose.

How the Patriots’ odds to get AFC’s No. 1 seed can improve in Week 15

Sunday might be an even more important day for those who are hoping the Patriots get the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which would give them home-field advantage until the Super Bowl.

While the Patriots and Broncos each have the same record entering Week 15, Denver holds the No. 1 seed as its victory over Las Vegas last Sunday clinched the “common opponents” tiebreaker over New England. 

So, the Patriots cannot finish with the same record as the Broncos. Luckily for New England, Denver might have a strong chance of losing on Sunday. The Broncos are home underdogs against the Packers.

If the Patriots defeat the Bills, and the Packers take down the Broncos, New England’s odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed climb from 48 percent to 77 percent, per The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator. Even if the Broncos win along with the Patriots on Sunday, The Athletic’s model has New England’s odds of getting the AFC’s No. 1 seed slightly increasing. That might be because of the Broncos’ relatively tough schedule to close out the year, hosting the Jaguars in Week 16 before taking on the Chiefs and Chargers.

A loss to the Bills and a Broncos win on Sunday would be devastating for the Patriots’ hopes to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed. In that scenario, the Patriots’ odds to get the No. 1 seed would drop to 18 percent as they’d essentially be 1.5 games back of the Broncos, according to The Athletic. Aaron Schatz’s DVOA model, meanwhile, would give the Patriots just a seven percent chance to win the AFC’s No. 1 seed. 

In the scenario that the Patriots and Broncos lose, New England’s odds to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed would drop to 42 percent in The Athletic’s model.