New England Patriots
Maye leapfrogged Stafford across several sportsbooks after the Rams QB struggled on Monday Night Football.
The race for NFL MVP has largely been a two-man race down the stretch between Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford.
But with just one week left in the NFL regular season, Maye has leapfrogged Stafford as the frontrunner for the accolade — due in large part to what played out on Monday night in Atlanta.
Stafford entered the Rams’ Monday Night Football matchup against the Falcons still holding pole position across several sportsbooks as the odds-on favorite for league MVP.
But that sentiment changed in short order after Stafford imploded in the first half — completing just 9-of-17 passes for 96 yards and two interceptions, including a pick-six. Atlanta held a 21-0 lead at halftime, and eventually withstood a Rams second-half surge to hold onto a 27-24 win.
That brutal start for Stafford quickly shifted the fortunes for Maye — who closed out Week 17 performance with a record-setting performance against the Jets (19-of-21, 256 yards, five touchdowns).
Stafford entered Monday as the favorite to win NFL MVP at -250. But after that loss to the Falcons went final, Maye is now leading the pack at -550, per FanDuel.
Stafford, who closed out his night completing 22-of-36 passes for 269 yards, two touchdowns, and three picks, now sits in second place in MVP odds at +420 on FanDuel.
DraftKings Sportsbook also now has Maye in the lead at -400, with Stafford ranked second at +300.
Stafford’s odds dropped all the way to -115 on DraftKings after that he was knocked for a pick-six courtesy of Jessie Bates III , with Maye jumping ahead as the favorite at -175 after Stafford’s second interception of the first half.
Even though Stafford and the Rams did claw back in the second half and erased Atlanta’s three-touchdown lead, it was too little, too late.
The 37-year-old Stafford has impressed this season with the Rams, throwing for over 4,400 yards to go along with 42 touchdowns and eight interceptions thus far.
But the case can be made that Maye has been the more valuable player for his team in 2025, especially with Stafford operating in an offense that boasts established playmakers like Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
Beyond the narrative of Maye leading a four-win Patriots club in 2024 to 13 wins (so far) and a playoff berth in 2025, the second-year pro has stuffed the stat sheet and posted one of the most efficient QB campaigns in league history.
Through 17 games this season, Maye leads the NFL in passer rating (112.9) and completion percentage (71.7) — while also throwing for 4,203 yards and 30 touchdowns against just eight interceptions.
On Sunday against the Jets, Maye further staked his claim to become just the seventh second-year pro to win an NFL MVP.
Sunday marked the first time in NFL history that a QB had recorded 255 or more passing yards, five or more touchdowns, and posted a completion percentage of 90 percent or better in a single game.
While Maye has deflected plenty of the discourse regarding his MVP candidacy this season, his head coach offered up a ringing endorsement after Sunday’s win.
“They don’t give me [an MVP] vote, but I would [give it to him],” Mike Vrabel said Sunday. “There’s nobody else that we want as our quarterback or that I want as our quarterback.”
Maye and the Patriots will look to secure at least the No. 2 seed in the AFC (and attempt to leapfrog Denver for the top seed) on Sunday when they host the Miami Dolphins for their regular-season finale.
Stafford and the Rams will close out their regular-season slate next Sunday when they take on the Arizona Cardinals.
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