Boston Red Sox
Entering Saturday, the Red Sox could either face the Yankees, Blue Jays, or Guardians in the Wild Card Series.
The Red Sox are back in the postseason, but the full playoff field in the American League has yet to be determined.
What is for certain, though, is that the Red Sox will play on the road in the Wild Card Series as they’ll either get the fifth or sixth seed in the American League playoffs. All three games will be played at the Red Sox’ opponent’s home ballpark.
While the Red Sox don’t know who they’ll play yet, either, we know that they’ll be taking on one of the Yankees, Blue Jays, or Guardians. They’ll face New York or Toronto if they get the No. 5 seed, while they’ll take on Cleveland if they get the No. 6 seed.
So, which one of those three teams should the Red Sox want to face in the Wild Card Series? Here’s a closer look at how they matchup against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Guardians.
New York Yankees
If the standings entering Saturday hold, the Red Sox would head to the Bronx for a three-game set against their top rival.
Boston has had New York’s number this season, winning nine of the 13 games in the season series. But the Yankees took two of three from the Red Sox at Fenway in their most recent matchup.
So, who would have the edge? Well, Game 1 of a potential series between these two teams would go a long way in determining that – and the Yankees might be the only team of these three that has a pitcher who could go toe-to-toe with Garrett Crochet.
Max Fried has been nearly as good as Crochet this season, especially when he’s gone up against the Red Sox. The lefty’s allowed just four runs in 18 1/3 innings pitched this season (1.96 ERA) over three starts against Boston this season.
Crochet, on the other hand, has put up respectable numbers against the Yankees, but they aren’t as strong as Fried’s against the Red Sox. Crochet has a 3.29 ERA in 27 1/3 innings pitched over four starts against the Yankees this season. However, he has 39 strikeouts over those four outings, and he was two outs away from a complete game shutout against the Yankees in June.
As for Games 2 and 3, the Red Sox would likely have Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito on the bump. Bello has been dynamite at Yankee Stadium over his career, holding a 1.95 career ERA in the Bronx. He had two scoreless seven-inning outings at Yankee Stadium this year. Giolito hasn’t had as much success against the Yankees, failing to get to the sixth inning in both of his starts against New York.
Carlos Rodon would seemingly be the Yankees’ Game 2 starter. He’s largely struggled against the Red Sox this season, holding a 5.74 ERA over three starts.
Luis Gil might be the Yankees’ best candidate to pitch Game 3, but he’s scheduled to pitch Sunday. The Red Sox might want to hope to avoid him, though, as he’s only allowed one earned run in 11 innings over two starts against Boston this year.
In terms of hitting, Aaron Judge hasn’t hit as well against the Red Sox as he has against the rest of MLB this year, but he’s still put up strong numbers. He’s hit .286 with five homers in 13 games against Boston. Jazz Chisholm, though, has been the Yankees’ top hitter in the rivalry this year, hitting .317 with four homers in 12 games.
Nine hitters on the Red Sox’ active roster have a batting average of at least .270 against the Yankees, although that includes a few players with 10 or fewer at bats (Nick Sogard, Connor Wong, Nate Eaton). Alex Bregman has hit .357 against the Yankees, adding a home run in seven games. Trevor Story hit .294 with two home runs in the season series. Jarren Duran hit just .159 against the Yankees this year, while Ceddanne Rafaela had a .152 batting average in the season series.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are arguably the team the Red Sox have had the most trouble against this season, going 5-8 in the season series. But they did win two of three in Toronto this past week.
Which Blue Jays pitchers the Red Sox would face in a potential series against Toronto is unclear. Kevin Gausman has been their best pitcher this season, but he might pitch on Sunday, which would rule him out for Game 1.
Possibly missing Gausman would be welcomed news for the Red Sox. The righty has a 2.63 ERA against Boston this year, although he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings in Tuesday’s game.
Righties Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, and Chris Bassitt are likely the Blue Jays’ other candidates to pitch in the Wild Card Series. Bassitt had a poor outing the last time he pitched against the Red Sox, giving up nine runs (eight earned) in two innings in a game in June. Scherzer gave up four runs in five innings in his first start against the Red Sox this season on Wednesday, while Bieber hasn’t faced Boston this year.
Crochet (1.31 ERA in three games) and Giolito (2.04 ERA in three games) have both been strong against the Blue Jays this year, while Bello has been OK against Toronto (4.09 over two starts). So, the starting pitching matchup would seem to favor the Red Sox here.
In terms of the Blue Jays’ hitters, the Red Sox could catch a break if they were to face Toronto in the Wild Card Series rather than later in the postseason. Bo Bichette still hasn’t been cleared to return from his knee injury yet, but he could play in the postseason depending on how long the Blue Jays’ run goes for.
Outside of Bichette, George Springer has been the Blue Jays’ top hitter against the Red Sox this year (.310 batting average, two home runs in 12 games). Vlad Guerrero Jr. has also hit .240 with three homers in the season series.
As for the Red Sox, Masataka Yoshida (.417 batting average, one home run) and Nathaniel Lowe (.333 batting average) had strong showings in their first games against the Blue Jays this season earlier in the week. However, not many other Red Sox hitters have hit to well against Toronto. Trevor Story has a .278 batting average, but didn’t hit a home run in the regular season series. Alex Bregman hit just .205 against Blue Jays pitching this year.
Cleveland Guardians
The Red Sox took the season series from the Guardians this year, winning two of three in Cleveland in April before winning two of three in Boston earlier in September.
Similar to the Blue Jays, the Guardians lack a true ace and their possible rotation is in flux depending on what it might do on Sunday. Either Gavin Williams (3.06 ERA this season) or Logan Allen (4.14 ERA this season) will start Sunday for the Guardians. So, whoever pitches that game would presumably be unavailable for the first two games of a possible Wild Card Series matchup.
Tanner Bibee is in line to pitch if the Guardians play in the Wild Card Series. The righty hasn’t faced the Red Sox this year, but holds a 4.24 ERA for the season and a 1.30 ERA in September. Williams didn’t pitch against the Red Sox this year, either, while Allen gave up seven runs to Boston in a game in April.
Crochet also got rocked in his one start against the Guardians this year, giving up seven runs in six innings in a September outing. Cleveland hit three homers against Boston’s ace in his final inning of work in that game, making it Crochet’s worst start of the season.
Bello’s had two respectable outings against the Guardians this year, giving up three runs in both. Giolito hasn’t faced Cleveland this year.
While Crochet’s struggled in his lone outing against the Guardians this year, Cleveland’s top hitter has hit well against in Boston in 2025. Jose Ramirez only has a .174 batting average and hasn’t hit a homer in six games against the Red Sox this year. Steven Kwan has hit Boston pitching well, though, posting a .407 batting average in the season series.
Nine hitters on the Red Sox’ active roster have hit at least .300 against the Guardians this year, but Jarren Duran (.375), Rob Refsnyder (.333), and Romy Gonzalez (.318) are the only ones with at least 10 at-bats in the season series.
Trevor Story and Alex Bregman have been unspectacular against Cleveland this year, hitting .240 and .222, respectively.
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