New England Patriots
Several preseason predictions for the Patriots haven’t aged all that well amid an 11-2 start to the year.
With four games left on their regular-season docket, Mike Vrabel and the 2025 Patriots have already exceeded plenty of expectations so far this fall.
Even the most optimistic Patriots fans were predicting plenty of growing pains in what was expected to be a multi-year rebuild.
Instead, the 11-2 Patriots are tied with the Broncos for the best record in the NFL — and could be one of the top Super Bowl contenders in a wide-open AFC field this winter.
As the Patriots wrap up their bye week and begin to prepare for a showdown with the Bills next Sunday, let’s revisit some of our “bold” predictions from just ahead of the start of the 2025 NFL season.
Fair to say, a lot of our “measured” predictions for Vrabel’s club haven’t aged all that well.
1. Drake Maye records 30 total touchdowns
Verdict: Looking good!
We expected Drake Maye to take a second-year leap this season, even if there were going to be some inevitable bumps in the road when it came to his development.
Sure enough, Maye has taken that leap and established himself as one of the top QBs in the game today. But, those expected struggles have been hard to come by amid a season where the 23-year-old Patriots star is playing like a legitimate MVP candidate.
Our projected stat line for Maye this season? 26 passing touchdowns, four rushing scores, and 13 interceptions.
With four games to go, Maye has already thrown for 23 touchdowns, 3,412 passing yards, and two rushing scores.
Maye’s elite arm strength and ability to extend plays with his legs was established last year.
But, his accuracy has been truly impressive this season, with Maye completing 71.5 percent of his throws and only getting knocked for six interceptions.
Plenty of factors have played into New England’s standing as one of the top teams in the NFL this season.
None have held as much weight as Maye’s arrival as a franchise star under center.
2. TreVeyon Henderson surpasses 1,000 rushing yards
Verdict: Might be a stretch
This proclamation wasn’t looking too good for the first half of the season, with Henderson struggling to find traction despite standing as New England’s top player during preseason action.
But, Henderson has started to find his footing as this season has gone on, recording six touchdowns in his last six games and averaging 78.7 rushing yards per game over that stretch.
Based on his current pace, Henderson is projected to finish the year with 817 rushing yards and seven rushing scores, although he could make a push for 1,000 yards if he continues his strong play down the stretch.
Even if Henderson has showcased plenty of promise as a future franchise back and big-play generator, New England’s rushing game in general has left a lot to be desired.
Entering Week 14 action, only three teams (Saints, 49ers, and Raiders) were averaging fewer yards per rush attempt than New England’s 3.9 on the year.
3. DeMario Douglas ends the year with more catches than Stefon Diggs
Verdict: Not even close
For all of the hype that Diggs carried with him entering his first season in Foxborough, we predicted that a shifty slot receiver like Douglas was going to emerge as Maye’s safety blanket — especially in Josh McDaniels’ system.
At this point, Douglas (27 catches) isn’t going to catch up with Diggs, who leads New England in targets (79), receptions (64), and receiving yards (705) this year.
Give credit to Douglas, though — after being on the outside looking in at the depth chart at the start of the season, he has made some clutch grabs for New England, especially down the field. Even with his profile as a short-yardage slot receiver, Douglas is averaging 14.9 yards per catch this season.
4. Mack Hollins leads the team in receiving touchdowns
Verdict: Not looking good
We had Hollins emerging as a trusty red-zone threat for New England given his impressive 6-foot-4 frame.
The 32-year-old wideout has been a solid add, reeling in two touchdowns and playing an underrated role as a blocker in New England’s wideout grouping.
But, in another development that few expected this year, Kayshon Boutte has established himself as one of the best deep-ball threats so far this season. He’s reeled in six touchdowns, 481 total yards, and 16.6 yards per catch in 11 games this season.
Beyond Boutte, Hunter Henry has once again stood tall as a reliable receiving threat for Maye with 45 catches, 610 receiving yards, and five touchdowns on the year.
One of the positive signs of Maye’s emergence as a dangerous playmaker has been his ability to spread out the ball. In total, six Patriots players have reeled in at least two receiving touchdowns this season.
5. Christian Gonzalez misses at least 4 games due to injury
Verdict: (Hopefully) wrong
There were plenty of fears about Gonzalez’s availability at the start of the season after suffering a hamstring injury in July.
Despite the ailment initially being waved off as a minor setback, Gonzalez was a no-show for the remainder of training camp. Indeed, the All-Pro corner ended up missing the first three games of the 2025 season before getting cleared for Week 4 against Carolina.
Since then, Gonzalez has managed to avoid the injury bug — and will be counted on down the stretch to anchor New England’s secondary.
6. The offensive line will once again be a major issue
Verdict: Not really
Granted, the Patriots’ dreadful offensive line could only go up from last year’s disaster.
But, one of New England’s most glaring flaws over the last few years has made major strides this season behind a revamped five-man unit, stronger coaching, and Maye’s ability to evade pressure.
New England allowed 52 sacks in 2024 — the fifth-most in the NFL, and the most sacks allowed in New England over one year since 1999.
This year, they have allowed 40 sacks through 13 games, while their pass-blocking win rate of 59 percent ranks 21st in the league. Those numbers may not leap off the page, but New England’s play in the trenches has been much sharper so far this fall.
Rookies like Will Campbell and Jared Wilson have been solid when available, while veteran Morgan Moses has been a major improvement over Demontrey Jacobs at right tackle.
But, give credit where it’s due. The Patriots’ O-line had one of their best games of the season last week against the Giants with two backups in Vederian Lowe and Ben Brown pressed into starting action.
This unit still hasn’t come close to reaching its ceiling. But they’ve been much better when compared to last year.
7. K’Lavon Chaisson will be New England’s best offseason pickup on defense
Verdict: The case could be made
A former first-round pick who had yet to put it all together prior to this season, Chaisson has emerged as a potent pass-rusher so far this fall.
Through 13 games, the 26-year-old edge has already set a new career-high with 6.5 sacks while both forcing and recovering a fumble.
Granted, there have been several players on New England’s defense who have helped elevate a unit that was routinely shredded last season. Robert Spillane has solidified a thin linebacker corps, while Harold Landry impressed out of the gate as another potent pass-rusher.
New England’s best pickups might have been at defensive line. Khyiris Tonga has gone from a relatively unheralded free-agent pickup to a menace in the trenches, but Milton Williams might take the cake as New England’s most impactful defensive addition.
Williams’ stats may not be flashy (3.5 sacks, 14 solo tackles), but the top free-agent pickup has been essential in clogging up running lanes and generating pressure up the middle this season.
8. Patriots trade Kyle Dugger
Verdict: Sure did
After moving on from Jabrill Peppers before the start of the regular season, we projected that New England would later cut ties with Dugger, who was almost a roster cut this summer after failing to mesh in the Patriots’ revamped defense.
Sure enough, New England traded Dugger to the Steelers in October for a late draft pick — with the Patriots choosing to move on from their longest-tenured player.
With Dugger no longer in the equation, the Patriots have relied heavily on rookie Craig Woodson and Jaylinn Hawkins as their starting safeties.
9. Andy Borregales settles into his role as kicker
Verdict: Correct
There were plenty of concerns regarding rookie kicker Andy Borregales after missing two field-goal attempts during preseason action — with veteran John Parker Romo posting a stronger stat line during training-camp reps.
But, after a shaky start to the season, Borregales has largely settled into his role as New England’s kicker — booting a game-winning field goal in Week 5 against the Bills and converting on 23 of his 26 field-goal attempts on the season.
10. Patriots come up short of playoffs with an 8-9 record
Verdict: Yikes!
It remains to be seen just how far this scrappy Patriots team goes in Vrabel’s first year at the helm.
But, with 11 wins already secured and a chance to clinch the AFC East on the table next Sunday against Buffalo, it’s clear that we — and many others — severely underestimated what this team could do this fall.
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