Boston Red Sox
Boston is predicted to be in the mix for a handful of the top free agents this offseason.
MLB free agency is officially underway, but it might be some time before the top free agents sign.
The winter meetings aren’t until Dec. 7, which is when many of the top free agents begin to find homes. So, with plenty of time until then, many insiders and outlets dropped their predictions for MLB free agency in recent days, and most seem to have the Red Sox among the more active teams this offseason.
Boston is in a position to spend this offseason. It has roughly $219 million committed in payroll for next season, per Red Sox Payroll. That puts them around $25 million shy of the first luxury tax threshold and approximately $45 million below the second luxury tax threshold.
So, let’s take a look at what insiders from MLB.com, ESPN, Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, and MLB Trade Rumors are predicting for the Red Sox and some of the top free agents this offseason.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox
What they’re predicting: Entering free agency, the Red Sox seem to be the favorite to sign Bregman, but not by much. Forty-three percent of the 46 voters surveyed by MLB.com believe that Bregman will re-sign with the Red Sox, while SI predicted that Boston will re-sign the third baseman. ESPN’s David Schoenfield listed the Red Sox as the best fit for Bregman, while the Red Sox were one of three teams (Tigers, Phillies) labeled as a best fit for the star third baseman by The Athletic. However, none of the four writers for MLB Trade Rumors predict that Bregman will stay in Boston.
Contract projections: Six years, $171 million (The Athletic); six years, $160 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
What to know about Bregman: Bregman was arguably the Red Sox’ best hitter this past season, hitting .273 with a .821 OPS, 18 homers, and 62 RBIs in 114 games. But Bregman, who’ll turn 32 in March, struggled in the season’s homestretch after battling a quad injury earlier in the year. He hit .187 in the final 27 games of the regular season, adding two home runs and a .581 OPS in that stretch.
Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million deal with the Red Sox last offseason after a tenous free agency process, remaining unsigned until the start of spring training. There were rumors of the Tigers and Cubs being interested in Bregman, while the Astros also made an attempt to re-sign him. He officially opted out of his contract earlier in November.
Of course, it’d be ideal if the Red Sox found some way to re-sign Bregman. But there are a few other options in free agency to replace him, including a couple we’ll talk about soon, and Marcelo Mayer, who filled in for Bregman when he was injured this past season.
Kyle Schwarber, DH/OF, Phillies
What they’re predicting: The Red Sox seem to be among the favorites to land Schwarber, but they aren’t as strong a favorite to get him as they are to re-sign Bregman. Thirteen percent of those surveyed by MLB.com think the Red Sox will sign Schwarber (second-highest behind Phillies), but none of the writers at MLB Trade Rumors predicted Boston to sign the star slugger. The Athletic also listed the Red Sox among the three best fits for Schwarber, alongside the Phillies and Reds.
Contract projections: Five years, $145 million (The Athletic); five years, $135 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
What to know about Schwarber: Schwarber, who’ll turn 33 in March, was arguably one of the top sluggers in baseball this past season. He led the NL in home runs (56) and RBIs (132) while posting a .240 batting average and a .928 OPS in 2025. He hit over 45 homers in two of his three other seasons in Philly and had a 38-homer season in 2024, proving to be one of baseball’s top few power bats.
The fit for Schwarber in Boston is pretty natural. Power was arguably the one thing missing from the Red Sox’ offense in 2025, ranking 15th in homers. Following the Rafael Devers trade, the Red Sox largely shuffled players around at designated hitter as well. So, signing Schwarber would give the Red Sox a stable, everyday option there.
Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
What they’re predicting: Alonso is also among the group of free-agent hitters that the Red Sox seem to be among the favorites to sign this offseason, but aren’t the top favorite. Twenty-two percent of those surveyed by MLB.com predicted that Alonso will sign with the Red Sox (second to Mets), while two of the four writers at MLB Trade Rumors believe that Boston will end up with the first baseman. The Athletic also listed the Red Sox as one of the three best fits for Alonso, alongside the Mets and Philles.
Contract projections: Five years, $140 million (The Athletic); four years, $110 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
What to know about Alonso: Alonso’s profile is similar to Schwarber, just that he’s a righty and not a lefty. He’s hit at least 30 homers in every season he’s been in the majors (outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season), and this past season was arguably the best of his career. Alonso hit .272 with a .871 OPS, an NL-leading 41 doubles, 38 home runs, and 126 RBIs.
Signing Alonso, who’ll turn 31 in December, could kill two birds with one stone for the Red Sox. He would give them some needed right-handed hitting help and fill a position of need at first base. With Triston Casas rehabbing for a torn patellar tendon, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow didn’t commit to a starting first baseman for next season.
Another plus for Alonso? He hasn’t missed a game in the last two seasons and has missed just nine games in the last four years.
Munetaka Murakami, 3B, Japan
What they’re predicting: Only a few of the voters for MLB.com’s survey think the Red Sox will end up with Murakami, while one of the four writers at MLB Trade Rumors thinks Boston will sign the Japanese star. The Athletic also listed the Red Sox among the best fits for Murakami alongside the Cubs and Blue Jays.
Contract projections: Eight years, $158.5 million (The Athletic), eight years, $160 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
What to know about Murakami: Murakami is arguably the top international free agent this offseason. He was officially posted on Friday, giving him a 45-day window (Dec. 22) to sign with an MLB team.
Murakami, 25, has been called the “Japanese Babe Ruth” for his ability to hit for power. Murakami broke the NPB’s long-standing single-season home run record in 2022, hitting 56 home runs that year. He’s hit at least 30 home runs in the five seasons he’s played 140 games, including 33 homers in 2024. This past season, Murakami hit 22 home runs to go with a .273 batting average and 1.042 OPS in just 56 games.
But as Murakami has shown high upside as a power hitter, there are some concerns with him at the plate. His whiff and strikeout rates over the last two seasons either would’ve been the worst or the second-worst on the Red Sox. He’s also struggled with hitting fastballs over 93 mph.
In terms of Murakami’s possible fit with the Red Sox, he could be an option at third base if they lose Bregman in free agency. But some believe he’s better suited for first base.
Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres
What they’re predicting: A few of the voters for MLB.com’s survey believe the Red Sox will sign Cease. Two of the four writers at MLB Trade Rumors predict that Case will end up signing with the Red Sox.
Contract projections: Six years, $174 million (The Athletic); six years, $189 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
What to know about Cease: Cease, who’ll turn 30 in December, is arguably the top pitcher on the open market this offseason. He went 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA this past season to go with a 1.327 WHIP. But he also had 215 strikeouts in 168 innings pitched over 32 starts. Cease also finished top-four in Cy Young voting in of the three previous seasons, dating back to his days with the White Sox.
Signing Cease would give the Red Sox another top-of-the-rotation arm and would likely replace Lucas Giolito as he entered free agency this week.
Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
What they’re predicting: A few of those surveyed by MLB.com believe that Valdez will sign with the Red Sox, while The Athletic listed Boston among one of Valdez’s three-best fits (Orioles, Blue Jays).
Contract projections: Seven years, $196 million (The Athletic); five years, $150 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
What to know about Valdez: If Cease isn’t the top pitcher on the open market, then it’s likely Valdez. The Astros lefty, who’ll turn 32 later in November, went 13-11 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, and 187 strikeouts in 192 innings pitched over 31 starts in 2025.
This past season might have actually been an off year for Valdez. He finished top 10 in AL Cy Young voting in each of the previous three seasons prior to 2025.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Mariners
What they’re predicting: A few of those surveyed by MLB.com predicted that the Red Sox will sign Suarez, and one of the four writers from MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Boston will get the slugging third baseman.
Contract projections: Three years, $69 million (The Athletic); three years, $60 million (MLB Trade Rumors)
What to know about Suarez: Suarez, 34, was one of baseball’s top power hitters this past season. He hit 49 homers between his stops with the Diamondbacks and Mariners. However, he hit .189 in Seattle after the trade during the regular season, and his batting average hasn’t been good since 2020 (.229).
The Red Sox were reportedly in on Suarez before he got traded to the Mariners and were interested in moving him to first base. So, he could be an option for them this offseason, regardless of what happens with Bregman.
Other notable free agent predictions involving the Red Sox
As for some other free agents getting linked to the Red Sox, The Athletic listed Boston as one of the three best fits for Padres right-handed pitcher Michael King and Phillies left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez. King, 30, has posted two sub-3.50 ERA seasons in his first two years as a full-time starter. Both The Athletic and MLB Trade Rumors projected that King will receive $75-$80 million in total money this offseason.
Suarez, meanwhile, went 12-8 with a 3.20 ERA this past season. The Athletic projects that Suarez will get a six-year, $153 million deal.
A few of the people surveyed by MLB.com predicted that the Red Sox will sign Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto and Padres infielder Luis Arraez as well. Realmuto, who’ll turn 35 in March, hit .257 with 12 homers in 134 games this past season. Both The Athletic and MLB Trade Rumors projected that Realmuto will sign a contract worth $15 million per year.
Arraez has been one of baseball’s top hitters for average over the last few years, posting a .292 batting average in 2025. Both The Athletic and MLB Trade Rumors projected that Arraez will get a two-year deal worth somewhere between $24-$30 million.
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